Iran’s missile strike on Saturday was a spectacular visual spectacle, sending crowds of Israelis scattering in both Israel and the West Bank. Israel’s Iron Dome was revealed to be vulnerable, as at least 7 Iranian missiles hit their targets cleanly. The entire purpose of the response appeared to be to reveal to the world that Israel’s much-lauded Iron Dome could be overwhelmed by a cluster attack of cheap drones, allowing real missiles an opening to strike. More spectacularly was the total lack of lives lost, unless Israel is purposely concealing any military deaths. Iran struck the bases from which were launched the jets that bombed Iran’s embassy in Syria. There was no berserker rage-murder of hundreds of Israelis. On the contrary, Iran’s attack was probably the most civilized military counterattack in history. Iran knows that Israeli bodies, any Israeli bodies at all, would galvanize the world against them.
But the casualty-free attack has deeply embarrassed Israel, and placed them in a very precarious position. Their pride demands a response, but they know that an IDF response will take Iranian civilian lives. They know that another casualty-heavy strike against Iran will bring out a real counterattack, one that will inflict serous casualties, while mobilizing the much larger nation against tiny Israel. This would be a no-turning-back moment, and war between the two would be inevitable. As much as Israel loves to beat its chest, at its heart, it’s ruled by a nation of cowards.
The world has seen the weakness of the Iron Dome, and the civility of Iran. My guess is that the next step will be a very mild counterattack by Israel, followed by another mild counterattack by Iran, as both lie in wait for the other to deal a casualty-heavy blow.